History · 3 years
Overview · Expectations index · updated daily
About the 10-Year Inflation Breakeven Sentiment
Alternative data indicator tracking narratives around 10-year inflation breakevens, capturing long-horizon inflation expectations embedded in TIPS markets and investor commentary.
Inflation sentiment is path-dependent: the same CPI print can read as bullish or bearish depending on prior expectations embedded in the narrative. Awareness spikes around CPI release dates are normal; sustained Awareness elevation between releases is the more informative signal.
Key drivers
- CPI and PPI monthly prints
- PCE inflation data
- Fed 2% target credibility commentary
- Wage growth and labor cost data
- Breakeven inflation rates
Reading the Expectations scale
- 0-20Now · 11Deeply AnchoredCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward anchored conditions.
- 21-40AnchoredBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80ElevatedPositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward elevated catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100RunawayElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Expectations score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for 10-Year Breakevens at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside 10-year breakeven inflation, long-term inflation sentiment, ai inflation outlook, internet market expectations, alternative data macro - helping traders and analysts track 10-Year Breakevens expectations shifts in real time.
Latest news
10-Year Breakevens in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
Social Security 2027 COLA Seen Near 3.5%
Two of the three inflation readings that determine Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment are already pointing to a bigger check next year, but not necessarily a bigger standard of living for retirees.
Read moreTurkey inflation target pushed to 2029
Turkey’s government has admitted the return to price stability will take longer than it hoped, pushing its single-digit inflation target out to 2029 and lifting next year’s inflation forecast to 18% in a budget plan that underscores how stubborn inflation remains for households, businesses and investors.
Read moreInflation Erodes Rs 1 Lakh to Rs 31,000 in 20 Years
Inflation can cut the real value of a Rs 1 lakh nest egg to about Rs 31,000 over 20 years if prices rise at a 6% annual pace, underscoring why investors cannot rely on cash savings alone to preserve purchasing power.
Read moreFrance inflation pressures households and consumer spending
France’s inflation backdrop is turning politically and economically toxic again, with energy-driven price rises pushing the cost of basic goods higher just as households say paychecks are failing to keep up.
Read moreThailand Prepares Cabinet Package to Ease Living Costs
Thailand plans to bring a cabinet package next week to cushion household living costs and support farm prices as a jump in oil prices threatens to lift inflation later this year, even though officials still expect full-year inflation to stay below 3%.
Read moreFrance Debt Outlook Reaches Record 121.7% of GDP
France’s public debt is headed to a record 121.7% of gross domestic product in 2027, a reminder that governments can live with inflation so long as it stays tame enough to erode debt without igniting a crisis.
Read moreRestaurants face Fed hike, traffic and margin test
The Federal Reserve’s first rate increase in three years is turning the restaurant sector into a live test of which chains can keep traffic growing without giving up margins.
Read moreMexico Inflation Hits Five-Month High in August
Mexico’s inflation has climbed back to a five-month high, underscoring how geopolitics and sticky service prices are keeping the cost-of-living shock alive even as parts of the economy cool.
Read moreAI Data Centers Face Higher Capital Costs
The 10-year Treasury is still pricing a capital fight, and the biggest loser is the cash-hungry data center boom.
Read moreAustralia inflation pressures keep RBA rates elevated
Australia is being pressed to keep borrowing costs elevated and cut spending, as a fresh fuel-price shock and stubborn cost pressures threaten to prolong the country’s five-year inflation fight.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the 10-Year Breakevens index?
Alternative data indicator tracking narratives around 10-year inflation breakevens, capturing long-horizon inflation expectations embedded in TIPS markets and investor commentary.
How is the 10-Year Breakevens index calculated?
The 10-Year Breakevens index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Deeply Anchored) to 100 (Runaway), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the 10-Year Breakevens index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.