History · 3 years
Overview · Expectations index · updated daily
About the Yield Curve Inversion Recession Signal
AI-driven analysis of yield curve inversion commentary and recession probability narratives - tracking how investors and analysts interpret curve dynamics as a leading economic indicator.
Inflation sentiment is path-dependent: the same CPI print can read as bullish or bearish depending on prior expectations embedded in the narrative. Awareness spikes around CPI release dates are normal; sustained Awareness elevation between releases is the more informative signal.
Key drivers
- CPI and PPI monthly prints
- PCE inflation data
- Fed 2% target credibility commentary
- Wage growth and labor cost data
- Breakeven inflation rates
Reading the Expectations scale
- 0-20Deeply AnchoredCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward anchored conditions.
- 21-40AnchoredBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60Now · 56NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80ElevatedPositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward elevated catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100RunawayElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Expectations score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Yield Curve Inversion at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside yield curve inversion, recession indicator, ai macro sentiment, internet bond market sentiment, alternative data recession - helping traders and analysts track Yield Curve Inversion expectations shifts in real time.
Latest news
Yield Curve Inversion in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
Poland bond yields widen vs WIBOR
Poland’s bond market has hit an unprecedented gap between government borrowing costs and WIBOR, a mismatch that is already making it harder for companies to sell debt and threatening to reshape pricing across the corporate bond market.
Read moreCoca-Cola dividend yield and 2024 income case
Coca-Cola is emerging as one of the clearest compromises for income investors caught between a weak 1.1% S&P 500 dividend yield and 10-year Treasury yields near 5%.
Read moreMOL sells €500 million bond at 4.86% yield
MOL has tapped the international bond market for €500 million at a 4.86% yield, a financing deal that reinforces demand for the Hungarian oil group even after a sharp rally in its shares this year.
Read moreU.S.-China 10-Year Yield Gap Hits Record 317 bps
The spread between U.S. and Chinese 10-year government bond yields has widened to a record 317 basis points, underscoring a stark split between an American economy still generating inflation pressure and a China economy that is struggling to revive demand.
Read moreU.S. 10-Year Yield Nears 5%, Bond ETFs Fall
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is pushing back toward 5% and the move is hitting bond funds, signaling that investors are again demanding more compensation to hold long-duration debt even as short-term policy expectations stay sticky.
Read more10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.95%
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since November 2023, intensifying a bond-market selloff that has pushed prices lower across the curve and added fresh pressure to equities and rate-sensitive assets.
Read moreTreasury yields near 4.95% before PPI data
U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Thursday as investors waited for wholesale inflation data that could decide whether the Federal Reserve keeps its easing path intact or pushes back against market expectations.
Read moreU.S. Treasury 10-year auction draws strong demand
The U.S. Treasury’s 10-year note auction drew its strongest demand in more than a decade, briefly easing a bond selloff that pushed yields to levels last seen in 2007 and sharpened concern over how much more borrowing the market can absorb.
Read moreU.S. Treasury 3-year note auction draws solid demand
The U.S. Treasury’s $58 billion sale of three-year notes drew average but adequate demand, with investors accepting a 4.474% yield that landed almost exactly where the issue was trading beforehand.
Read moreECB Rate Hike Debate After Oil Price Jump
The European Central Bank faces a familiar test: whether to keep tightening after a jump in oil prices that has lifted headline inflation, even as the yield curve and broad money data suggest the real inflation threat remains contained.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the Yield Curve Inversion index?
AI-driven analysis of yield curve inversion commentary and recession probability narratives - tracking how investors and analysts interpret curve dynamics as a leading economic indicator.
How is the Yield Curve Inversion index calculated?
The Yield Curve Inversion index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Deeply Anchored) to 100 (Runaway), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the Yield Curve Inversion index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.