History · 3 years
Overview · Expectations index · updated daily
About the Long-Term Inflation Expectations Sentiment
AI-based intelligence tracking long-run inflation expectations embedded in public commentary, surveys, and financial media - capturing how anchored or drifting expectations have become.
Inflation sentiment is path-dependent: the same CPI print can read as bullish or bearish depending on prior expectations embedded in the narrative. Awareness spikes around CPI release dates are normal; sustained Awareness elevation between releases is the more informative signal.
Key drivers
- CPI and PPI monthly prints
- PCE inflation data
- Fed 2% target credibility commentary
- Wage growth and labor cost data
- Breakeven inflation rates
Reading the Expectations scale
- 0-20Now · 4Deeply AnchoredCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward anchored conditions.
- 21-40AnchoredBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80ElevatedPositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward elevated catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100RunawayElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Expectations score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Long-term Inflation Expectations at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside long-term inflation expectations, future inflation sentiment, ai macro sentiment, internet inflation outlook, alternative data inflation - helping traders and analysts track Long-term Inflation Expectations expectations shifts in real time.
Latest news
Long-term Inflation Expectations in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
India growth outlook softens after Q1 boost
India’s economy got a solid first-quarter boost from government spending and cooler inflation, but the easy part of the recovery may be behind it.
Read moreUS Household Income Tops 2019 Level
US households finally regained the purchasing-power benchmark they lost in the pandemic shock, but the economic win is thin: median income rose to a record $87,460 in 2025, only slightly above its 2019 level and still barely enough to offset the higher cost of living.
Read moreHonduras Central Bank Raises Rate to 6.00%
Honduras’ central bank raised its benchmark rate to 6.00% after inflation climbed above target, a move aimed at cooling price pressures without derailing growth.
Read moreHonduras Central Bank Raises Rate to 6.0%
Honduras’ central bank raised its benchmark rate to 6.0% on Sept. 18, a pre-emptive tightening move aimed at stopping a broadening inflation pickup that is being driven largely by food, energy and weather shocks rather than overheating core demand.
Read moreIndia steel prices rise, lifting costs for makers
Steel in India has become costlier by as much as Rs 4,900 a tonne in just two days, a move that is set to raise input costs for automakers, appliance makers and builders and add fresh pressure to inflation-sensitive consumers.
Read moreNigeria Inflation Falls to 15.39% in August
Nigeria’s headline inflation cooled to 15.39% in August, but manufacturers say the relief is mostly cosmetic because energy, logistics, foreign exchange and tax costs are still squeezing production and margins.
Read moreMalaysia inflation rises to 1.9% in August
Malaysia’s inflation rate edged up to 1.9% in August, a move that keeps price pressures contained for now but shows energy-linked costs are still pushing consumer prices higher.
Read morePortugal inflation rises to 3.6% in August
Portugal’s inflation climbed to 3.6% in August, putting the country in the top 10 highest-price EU members and reinforcing the idea that Europe’s disinflation path is not moving in a straight line.
Read moreRomania Inflation Stays Highest in EU at 6.3%
Romania remained the European Union’s inflation outlier in August, with consumer prices rising 6.3% from a year earlier, more than double the bloc average and a reminder that price pressures are still eroding household buying power and complicating policy choices.
Read moreRussia inflation falls to 6.2% in September
Russia’s inflation has eased to 6.2%, a sign that months of intense price pressure are finally starting to cool and one that could give policymakers a little more room to maneuver. For investors, the bigger question is whether this improvement is durable enough to support lower borrowing costs, steadier consumer demand and a less volatile ruble over time.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the Long-term Inflation Expectations index?
AI-based intelligence tracking long-run inflation expectations embedded in public commentary, surveys, and financial media - capturing how anchored or drifting expectations have become.
How is the Long-term Inflation Expectations index calculated?
The Long-term Inflation Expectations index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Deeply Anchored) to 100 (Runaway), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the Long-term Inflation Expectations index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.