History · 3 years
Overview · Sentiment index · updated daily
About the Mortgage-Backed Securities Sentiment
Alternative data intelligence tracking mortgage-backed securities sentiment - measuring housing market refinancing activity, prepayment risk commentary, and Fed MBS portfolio normalization narratives.
Bond market sentiment tends to lead equity moves by one to three trading sessions. Extreme Awareness readings frequently coincide with Treasury auction events, macro data surprises, or sudden yield-curve shifts. The Sentiment-Awareness spread is particularly useful for anticipating duration-positioning rotations.
Key drivers
- Treasury auction results and bid-to-cover ratios
- 10-year and 2-year yield levels
- Yield curve slope (2s10s spread)
- Fed rate expectations (futures pricing)
- Credit spread widening / tightening
Reading the Sentiment scale
- 0-20Extreme BearishCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward bearish conditions.
- 21-40Now · 21BearishBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80BullishPositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward bullish catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100Extreme BullishElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Sentiment score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for MBS at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside mbs trade signals, mortgage backed securities outlook, ai bonds trade signals, mbb analysis, alternative data bonds - helping traders and analysts track MBS sentiment shifts in real time.
Latest news
MBS in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
Treasury Yields Hold Near 5% as Mortgages Near 7%
The bond market is flashing a warning that mortgage holders cannot ignore: U.S. borrowing costs are being reset at a higher level, and the ripple effect is already locking 30-year mortgage rates near 7%.
Read moreSpain banks limit mortgages after age 50
Montse Cespedosa’s warning that many banks dislike granting mortgages after age 50 lands in a housing market already squeezed by high prices and still-elevated borrowing costs, making homeownership even harder for Spain’s older buyers and would-be movers.
Read moreU.S. Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.49% on Treasury Yields
Mortgage rates in the U.S. have climbed back toward 6.5%, squeezing affordability just as a jump in Treasury yields tied to Middle East tensions makes it more expensive to buy a home.
Read moreReal Estate Stocks Fall as Mortgage Rates Near 7%
Real estate stocks are under pressure as the Federal Reserve resumes rate increases and 30-year mortgage rates climb toward 7%, tightening financing conditions for homebuyers, developers and property owners.
Read moreMortgage Rates Above 7% Shift U.S. Housing to Buyers
Mortgage rates pushing above 7% are tilting the U.S. housing market back toward buyers, even as the jump in borrowing costs deepens pressure on sales, prices and homebuilder margins.
Read moreUSDA No-Down-Payment Mortgage Draws Renewed Attention
The USDA’s no-down-payment mortgage is drawing renewed attention because it offers one of the few ways cash-strapped buyers can still finance a home in full at a time when prices, insurance costs and borrowing expenses have made the upfront hurdle to homeownership unusually high.
Read moreRussia mortgage refinancing rates fall in 2025
Mortgage refinancing is suddenly back on the table for many borrowers as rates have eased from their 2025 peaks, but the savings only work if homeowners avoid stretching the loan term or paying too much in fees.
Read moreMortgage Rates Near 7% Pressure Homebuilders
Mortgage costs are climbing back toward 7%, and that makes the decision to borrow for a new home much more consequential for families, builders and investors alike.
Read moreMortgage lenders matter as rates stay near 7%
Choosing a mortgage lender has become a higher-stakes decision as borrowing costs hover near 7%, refinancing demand remains weak and the cost of a bad fit can now run into thousands of dollars in extra interest, fees or delayed closings.
Read moreAustralia Banks Face Tighter Mortgage Lending
Australia’s mortgage squeeze is worsening as lenders tighten approval standards and weigh more household debt, a shift that threatens to slow credit growth and keep pressure on borrowers already stretched by higher rates and housing costs.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the MBS index?
Alternative data intelligence tracking mortgage-backed securities sentiment - measuring housing market refinancing activity, prepayment risk commentary, and Fed MBS portfolio normalization narratives.
How is the MBS index calculated?
The MBS index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Extreme Bearish) to 100 (Extreme Bullish), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the MBS index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.