History · 3 years
Overview · Outlook index · updated daily
About the Existing Home Sales Sentiment
Machine-learning signal measuring existing home sales sentiment - tracking inventory constraint commentary, mortgage rate affordability dynamics, and buyer demand shifts in residential real estate markets.
Macro sentiment indicators capture the aggregate narrative bias across economic data releases, not just individual prints. A rising Awareness score alongside deteriorating Sentiment is a classic recession-fear signal. These indicators are best used to track how quickly markets are repricing macro risk, rather than to predict the data itself.
Key drivers
- PMI composite readings (manufacturing + services)
- Consumer confidence surveys (Conference Board, UoM)
- Retail sales and personal spending data
- Leading economic indicators (LEI)
- Labor market health (jobless claims, JOLTS)
Reading the Outlook scale
- 0-20Deeply PessimisticCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward pessimistic conditions.
- 21-40PessimisticBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80OptimisticPositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward optimistic catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100Now · 98Highly OptimisticElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Outlook score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Home Sales at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside home sales sentiment, housing market outlook, real estate transactions, ai macro sentiment, alternative data macro - helping traders and analysts track Home Sales outlook shifts in real time.
Latest news
Home Sales in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
South Korea to widen first-time homebuyer mortgage access
South Korea is preparing to widen access to first-time homebuyer mortgages by spelling out when people with a prior housing record can still qualify for the preferred loan-to-value limits, a move that could ease financing for real users caught up in inheritance and failed presale cases.
Read moreBangor Home Sales Slow in Early August
Only six homes changed hands in Bangor from Aug. 2 to 8, underscoring a broader slowdown in Maine’s housing market that could keep buyers in the driver’s seat and pressure sellers to cut prices.
Read moreCalifornia Housing Prices Rise as Supply Stays Tight
California’s housing market is firming even as borrowing costs remain punishing, with home prices rising again and fresh supply still too scarce to meaningfully cool demand.
Read moreCalgary Housing Market Softens as Condo Supply Builds
Calgary’s housing market is moving into a softer phase, and the biggest risk for investors and homeowners is that higher-density supply is still working its way through the system.
Read moreGeorgetown home sales rise as prices fall in August
Georgetown’s housing market showed a classic late-cycle split in August: more homes changed hands even as prices fell across every major ZIP code, signaling that affordability, not exuberance, is now driving demand.
Read moreLennar, KB Home and Dream Finders Shares Fall
Housing affordability is worsening just as U.S. homebuilders are already under pressure, and the latest selloff in Lennar, KB Home and Dream Finders Home shows investors are bracing for thinner margins, softer demand and more cautious buyers.
Read moreTürkiye Home Sales Fall 14.7% in August
Türkiye’s housing market extended its downturn in August, with home sales falling 14.7% from a year earlier to 127,410, a slide that underscores how elevated borrowing costs and strained affordability are cooling one of the economy’s biggest consumer sectors.
Read moreItaly Home Sales Stall as Mortgage Rates Bite
Italy’s housing market is showing its first clear loss of momentum as higher mortgage rates and inflation begin to bite, with national home sales barely rising in the second quarter and key cities diverging sharply.
Read moreMelbourne Cinema Nova Sale Tops A$2.9 Million
Melbourne’s Cinema Nova sale shows how heritage property is becoming one of the market’s quieter asymmetric opportunities, with a landmark film house now set to fetch more than A$2.9 million as investors hunt assets that can be revalued, repurposed and protected by scarcity.
Read moreThailand homebuilders cut prices at EXPO 2026
Thailand’s homebuilding market is leaning harder on price cuts, financing perks and buyer protection as developers try to turn cautious households into signed contracts at EXPO 2026.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the Home Sales index?
Machine-learning signal measuring existing home sales sentiment - tracking inventory constraint commentary, mortgage rate affordability dynamics, and buyer demand shifts in residential real estate markets.
How is the Home Sales index calculated?
The Home Sales index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Deeply Pessimistic) to 100 (Highly Optimistic), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the Home Sales index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.