History · 3 years
Overview · Sentiment index · updated every 3 hours
About the Global Stability Sentiment
Machine-learning global geopolitical risk index - aggregating conflict escalation commentary, political instability narratives, and cross-border tension signals into a composite risk sentiment indicator.
Geopolitical sentiment is episodic by nature: events cluster, then fade. Sustained Awareness elevation (above 70) beyond the initial event window often signals that the situation is being re-priced as structural rather than transitory. Cross-referencing with relevant commodity or currency sentiment can confirm whether market participants are acting on the risk.
Key drivers
- Bilateral diplomatic developments and trade negotiations
- Sanctions announcements and enforcement actions
- Military escalation and de-escalation signals
- Energy and supply chain vulnerability commentary
- International organization statements (UN, NATO, IMF)
Reading the Sentiment scale
- 0-20Deeply NegativeCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward negative conditions.
- 21-40Now · 37NegativeBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80PositivePositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward positive catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100Strongly PositiveElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Sentiment score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Geopolitical Risk at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside geopolitical risk sentiment, global risk outlook, ai geopolitics, internet news analysis, alternative data macro - helping traders and analysts track Geopolitical Risk sentiment shifts in real time.
Latest news
Geopolitical Risk in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
Chile elder care fire raises inspection risk
A fire at an unlicensed elder care home in Chile’s La Araucanía region killed 16 people and is likely to trigger tighter inspections, heavier penalties and broader scrutiny of a sector already criticized for weak oversight.
Read moreChina biotech deals face U.S. policy scrutiny
China’s rise as a source of new medicines is no longer just a supply-chain or licensing story for Big Pharma; it is turning into a national-security issue in Washington that could shape drug access, cross-border dealmaking and the valuation of major drugmakers.
Read moreFrance Saint Pierre and Miquelon visit
France’s rare show of force in Saint Pierre and Miquelon is less about a small island than about who gets to shape the North Atlantic order, as Emmanuel Macron and Canada’s Mark Carney use the territory to underline sovereignty claims at a time of renewed tension with Washington.
Read moreGreek minister warns on global security order
Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis used a speech in Toronto to argue that the post-World War II security order is breaking down, with investors and policymakers now having to price a world where power increasingly outruns law.
Read moreSpain cocaine seizure highlights West Africa route
A record cocaine seizure off Spain and the hunt for Dutch fugitive Jos Leijdekkers are exposing a shift that matters far beyond one criminal case: West Africa is becoming a staging ground for shipments that feed Europe’s drug market.
Read moreEurope Firms Add Security to Business Decisions
Geopolitical risk is no longer a background issue for European companies, but a direct input into investment, supply-chain and technology decisions, Lithuanian political scientist L. Kojala said, arguing that businesses must now factor security into the same calculations that once centered on margins and logistics.
Read moreCanada-EU Trade Ties Grow as U.S. Tariffs Rise
Canada’s deepening trade conflict with the U.S. is making a closer partnership with the European Union more economically attractive, and potentially a template for other like-minded democracies seeking insulation from Washington’s tariff shock. For investors and policymakers, the significance is less about symbolism than about where trade flows, supply chains and capital may be redirected as North American commerce becomes more politicized.
Read moreVolkswagen cuts 2026 profit outlook after Porsche write-down
Volkswagen has slashed its profit outlook for 2026 after a roughly 10 billion-euro hit from a Porsche write-down, a worsening China business and restructuring costs underscored how the carmaker is being squeezed by weaker demand in its biggest market and a more hostile global trade environment.
Read moreS&P 500, EFA and FXI Trends in Geopolitical Risk
Companies are still reacting too slowly to a world that has become structurally less stable, and that lag is now showing up in equity prices, volatility and portfolio positioning.
Read moreWheat Prices Rise on Drought and Black Sea Disruption
Wheat’s rally is offering US growers higher prices, but not yet the kind of windfall that can offset drought, record fuel costs and the geopolitical shocks distorting global grain flows.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the Geopolitical Risk index?
The Geopolitical Risk Fear and Greed Index is a market sentiment indicator that measures the emotional impact of geopolitical events on global financial markets, ranging from extreme fear to extreme greed. This unique index tracks real-time data related to international conflicts, political instability, economic sanctions, and geopolitical tensions, providing a snapshot of how these events are influencing investor sentiment and market conditions.
Every day, the index processes millions of data points, utilizing AI-powered sentiment analysis to assess news reports, global political risks, economic disruptions, and market reactions. By analyzing how these factors are affecting investor confidence, the index helps identify whether the market is driven by fear (concern over instability or uncertainty) or greed (optimism amidst relatively stable geopolitical conditions).
This tool is particularly valuable for global investors, traders, and financial analysts who need to stay informed about the impact of geopolitical risks on markets such as stocks, commodities, and currencies. By understanding whether geopolitical events are creating panic or optimism, investors can better time their strategies, hedge risks, or capitalize on potential opportunities.
How is the Geopolitical Risk index calculated?
The Geopolitical Risk index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Deeply Negative) to 100 (Strongly Positive), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the Geopolitical Risk index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs daily. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.