History · 3 years
Overview · Outlook index · updated daily
About the Consumer Confidence Recession Sentiment
Machine-learning indicator measuring consumer confidence dynamics across digital discussions and macro commentary, capturing willingness to spend and forward-looking household sentiment.
Macro sentiment indicators capture the aggregate narrative bias across economic data releases, not just individual prints. A rising Awareness score alongside deteriorating Sentiment is a classic recession-fear signal. These indicators are best used to track how quickly markets are repricing macro risk, rather than to predict the data itself.
Key drivers
- PMI composite readings (manufacturing + services)
- Consumer confidence surveys (Conference Board, UoM)
- Retail sales and personal spending data
- Leading economic indicators (LEI)
- Labor market health (jobless claims, JOLTS)
Reading the Outlook scale
- 0-20Deeply PessimisticCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward pessimistic conditions.
- 21-40PessimisticBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80OptimisticPositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward optimistic catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100Now · 100Highly OptimisticElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Outlook score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Consumer Confidence at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside consumer confidence sentiment, recession risk, ai consumer sentiment, internet economic confidence, alternative data macro - helping traders and analysts track Consumer Confidence outlook shifts in real time.
Latest news
Consumer Confidence in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
US consumer confidence falls to near record lows
US consumer confidence is sliding to some of the weakest levels on record this year, and that matters because the American consumer still drives the bulk of economic growth. When households feel worse about their finances, they do not just complain more — they tend to delay purchases, trade down to cheaper goods and become more cautious about discretionary spending.
Read moreEU green claims rules hit advertisers and retailers
The European Union is about to redraw the playbook for how brands market sustainability, durability and repairability — and that matters because it hits the core economics of digital advertising, e-commerce and consumer trust at the same time.
Read moreArgentina Consumer Confidence Rises in September
Consumer confidence in Argentina rose 2.4% in September after two straight monthly declines, but the rebound was narrow and leaves households far below the optimism levels seen earlier this year.
Read moreJapan's Takaichi says food tax cut funding is secured
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan has already lined up funding for a planned cut in the sales tax on food, signaling that her government intends to press ahead with expansionary fiscal policy without leaning on extra bond issuance.
Read moreCosta Rica Consumer Confidence Edges Up in August
Consumer confidence in Costa Rica held broadly steady between June and August, but the latest survey suggests households are still wary about inflation, fuel costs and the economy’s longer-term outlook.
Read moreColombia consumer confidence falls in August
Consumer confidence in Colombia slipped in August, a warning sign for domestic demand just as households grew less upbeat about both current conditions and the months ahead.
Read moreIndonesia consumer confidence rises to 118.5 in August
Consumer confidence in Indonesia improved in August, with the BI Consumer Confidence Index rising to 118.5, a sign households remain willing to spend even as global sentiment weakens and investors watch for signs of broader retail resilience.
Read moreOCOP Craft Standards Open Export Market Opportunities
Traditional craft products are gaining pricing power and investor relevance as official One Tambon One Product, or OCOP, standards give buyers a clearer quality benchmark and help artisans move beyond local sales into higher-value markets.
Read moreBluey Ice Cream Tie-Up Boosts Unilever Strategy
Bluey’s move into the freezer aisle underscores how licensing has become one of the few reliable ways packaged-food groups can win attention, premium pricing and repeat purchases in a saturated grocery market.
Read moreGreek myKataggelies complaint platform moves online
A new Greek consumer complaints platform, myKataggelies, is set to move grievance filing and tracking online from October, a shift that could make it harder for retailers and service providers to bury disputes and easier for regulators to spot repeat offenders.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the Consumer Confidence index?
Machine-learning indicator measuring consumer confidence dynamics across digital discussions and macro commentary, capturing willingness to spend and forward-looking household sentiment.
How is the Consumer Confidence index calculated?
The Consumer Confidence index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Deeply Pessimistic) to 100 (Highly Optimistic), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the Consumer Confidence index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.