History · 3 years
Overview · Sentiment index · updated daily
About the Coffee Market Sentiment
AI-based analysis of global coffee market sentiment - capturing Brazilian and Vietnamese crop condition commentary, roaster cost discussions, and consumer price sensitivity trends.
Commodity sentiment is driven by the intersection of supply narratives and macro demand signals. Awareness readings are particularly useful here because supply disruptions generate media coverage before they impact price discovery. A high-Awareness / low-Sentiment combination often signals a contested supply narrative without clear directional resolution.
Key drivers
- Supply disruption and production reports (OPEC, USDA, EIA)
- USD strength (inverse relationship for dollar-denominated commodities)
- Global manufacturing PMI and industrial demand data
- Seasonal demand patterns and inventory cycles
- Geopolitical risks affecting supply chains
Reading the Sentiment scale
- 0-20Extreme BearishCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward bearish conditions.
- 21-40BearishBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60Now · 56NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80BullishPositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward bullish catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100Extreme BullishElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Sentiment score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Coffee at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside coffee trade signals, coffee market outlook, trader trade signals coffee, ai coffee analysis, coffee price trade signals - helping traders and analysts track Coffee sentiment shifts in real time.
Latest news
Coffee in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
Croatia Restaurants Must Show Sept. 10 Anchor Prices
Croatia’s restaurants, cafés and other service businesses will have to show what an item cost on Sept. 10 alongside the current price from Oct. 1, a move aimed at making price increases more visible but one that hospitality groups say could make menus harder to read and costlier to update.
Read moreCoffee Prices Rise on Asia Demand and Tight Supply
Asia’s growing appetite for coffee is reshaping the global bean market, pushing arabica prices about 2.5 to 3 times higher and creating a supply squeeze that is likely to last for years.
Read moreVietnam Coffee Prices Drop Below 94,000 Dong
Coffee prices in Vietnam dropped below 94,000 dong a kilogram after a sharp weekly selloff in robusta and arabica futures, as rising exchange inventories and sluggish physical trading outweighed lingering supply tightness.
Read moreVietnam coffee falls as pangasius gains in Japan
Vietnam’s coffee prices are sliding away from the 100,000 dong-per-kilogram mark just as pangasius, a white-fleshed fish prized by Japanese buyers, is finding a bigger place on sushi menus in Japan. For investors and exporters, that split tells a simple story: agricultural markets are being pulled in very different directions by supply conditions, overseas demand and the ability of producers to match product with the right buyer.
Read moreIndia rice export prices rise on monsoon worries
India’s rice export prices have climbed to their highest level in more than a year as below-average rainfall stokes concern that the world’s biggest shipper may face its first output decline in a decade.
Read moreHAGL coffee expansion as durian prices ease
Durian prices are easing after a sharp run-up, while Hoang Anh Gia Lai is pushing ahead with a large coffee expansion that could reshape its agricultural earnings over the next few years.
Read moreStarbucks Japan raises coffee prices from Oct. 9
Starbucks will raise prices in Japan from Oct. 9, lifting the short size of brewed coffee to 415 yen from 394 yen as the company passes on higher raw material, logistics and energy costs to customers.
Read moreCoffee futures fall on stronger supply outlook
Coffee futures fell for a third straight session as a run of bearish supply signals reversed recent gains and pushed robusta below $3,400 a tonne, a move that matters because it could ease input costs for roasters and food makers but squeeze growers and exporters after months of elevated volatility.
Read moreVietnam coffee prices fall as arabica hits 10-week low
Coffee prices in Vietnam and on global exchanges fell again on Sept. 18, extending a two-day slide that has pushed domestic buying rates further from 95,000 dong a kilogram and dragged arabica to its weakest level in about 10 weeks.
Read moreCoffee prices rise as Illycaffe warns on costs
Coffee drinkers are likely to face higher bar prices in January as Illycaffè Chief Executive Cristina Scocchia warns that roasters and cafés may have little choice but to pass on stubbornly high input costs.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the Coffee index?
AI-based analysis of global coffee market sentiment - capturing Brazilian and Vietnamese crop condition commentary, roaster cost discussions, and consumer price sensitivity trends.
How is the Coffee index calculated?
The Coffee index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Extreme Bearish) to 100 (Extreme Bullish), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the Coffee index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.