Ukraine is counterattacking in eastern Donetsk in a bid to stop Russia from tightening a pincer around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the last major Ukrainian-held strongholds in the region and a linchpin of Kyiv’s broader Donbas defense.
Ukraine counterattacks near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk
The push matters because the two cities sit at the center of Ukraine’s fortified “fortress belt,” and any Russian breakthrough there would improve Moscow’s chances of forcing a wider retreat across eastern Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian troops are advancing east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk after months of preparation, with Kyiv claiming it has regained 176 square kilometers of territory.
Sentiment Indicators
ISW said Ukrainian forces may have retaken Ozerne and moved east from Pyskunivka toward Kryva Luka, where fighting is unfolding across the Siverskyi Donets river. The high ground around Kryva Luka could help Ukraine block Russian movement south of the river and set up follow-on counterattacks, while also denying Moscow a position that could support further pressure on Sloviansk.
Russia has been pushing for months to close in on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from multiple directions, but that effort has slowed since Ukraine’s earlier Vivaldi operation near Lyman. Moscow still retains clear advantages in manpower and firepower and continues to strike the remaining Ukrainian-held urban centers in Donetsk, underscoring that the battle is far from over.
The latest Ukrainian moves also suggest a broader attempt to drain Russian resources by hitting drone units and forcing Moscow to shift troops, including UAV and Spetsnaz elements, toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis. Ukraine has also reorganized command in and around Donetsk, while Russia appears to be adapting by reinforcing the sector with assets from quieter fronts.
For investors, the story is a reminder that the war remains a persistent geopolitical risk rather than a settled front, with implications for defense spending, energy markets and broader European security planning. A sustained Ukrainian defense of Kryva Luka and the heights near Mykolaivka would make it harder for Russia to complete the encirclement it has sought around the Donetsk corridor.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | ▲Time, terrain, defensive depth | ▼Russian pressure, manpower attrition |
| Russia | ▲None if pincer stalls | ▼Encirclement strategy, momentum |
| Defense contractors | ▲Higher security spending case | ▼None if war eases |
| European markets | ▲Clarity on front-line risk | ▼Escalation uncertainty |
