Paraguay’s soybean crop is on track to top 12 million tons in the 2026/27 season, but growers say a colder-than-normal start to planting and a sharply stronger guaraní against the dollar are clouding the outlook for the country’s biggest export crop.
Paraguay Soy Crop Seen Above 12 Million Tons
The projection matters because soybeans anchor Paraguay’s farm economy, hard-currency earnings and rural investment cycle. A harvest above 12 million tons would mark another solid campaign after producers said planting is already 25% to 30% complete and the area under soy could reach about 3.7 million hectares, with some growers targeting as much as 12.5 million tons if weather cooperates.
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Still, the crop is not yet made. Farmers say recent low temperatures are slowing germination and could delay the staggered planting schedule, with most field work expected to finish between Oct. 10 and Oct. 15. Soil moisture is currently adequate, but the next few weeks will be decisive, with producers saying steady rains would support the crop while drought remains the biggest risk.
For investors and commodity traders, the larger concern is not just volume but margins. Héctor Cristaldo, who heads the Unión de Gremios de la Producción, said the guaraní has strengthened about 23% against the dollar, eroding the peso-equivalent returns farmers receive on exports and squeezing competitiveness across soybeans, corn, rice, sesame, chia, fruit and vegetables.
That currency pressure comes at a sensitive moment for South American agriculture, where export prices, weather and exchange rates can shift producer cash flow quickly. Soy futures-linked funds such as the SOYB ETF were trading near $28.12 on Monday, while corn proxy CORN closed at $20.27 and the broader DBA agriculture fund at $28.68, underscoring continued investor interest in grain markets as harvest expectations and currency moves collide.
The soy outlook will sharpen as more acreage is planted and weather forecasts firm, while traders will also watch global demand and exchange rates to see whether Paraguay’s higher output translates into stronger export earnings or is partly offset by the stronger local currency.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Paraguayan soybean growers | ▲Larger crop volumes | ▼Local-currency export returns |
| Soy importers / processors | ▲More supply availability | ▼Potentially firmer logistics needs |
| Exporters in Paraguay | ▲Higher tonnage potential | ▼Strong guaraní competitiveness hit |
| Soy and grain investors | ▲More price-moving harvest data | ▼Higher weather and currency risk |
