History · 3 years
Overview · Outlook index · updated daily
About the Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Sentiment
AI-driven synthesis of survey-based inflation expectations - aggregating consumer, business, and analyst survey commentary to measure how inflation psychology is forming across segments.
Consumer sentiment indicators track narrative shifts across spending categories, not just headline retail data. Category-level Awareness spikes often precede sector earnings revisions by four to six weeks as analyst coverage catches up to on-the-ground sentiment shifts. Sentiment divergences across related categories (e.g., healthcare rising, discretionary falling) can signal income-squeeze dynamics.
Key drivers
- Retail sales reports (headline and core)
- Consumer confidence surveys
- Wage growth and disposable income data
- Credit card spending and delinquency trends
- Inflation pass-through commentary and pricing power signals
Reading the Outlook scale
- 0-20Now · 7Deeply PessimisticCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward pessimistic conditions.
- 21-40PessimisticBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80OptimisticPositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward optimistic catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100Highly OptimisticElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Outlook score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Survey-Based Expectations at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside survey inflation expectations, consumer inflation sentiment, ai expectations analysis, internet survey discussions, alternative data inflation - helping traders and analysts track Survey-Based Expectations outlook shifts in real time.
Latest news
Survey-Based Expectations in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
ECB euro banknote redesign reaches public vote
The European Central Bank is in the home stretch of a redesign of euro banknotes that will eventually affect the cash held by consumers, retailers and banks across 21 countries, with a public vote now helping decide what the next generation of notes will look like.
Read moreUS and UK companies cut FX hedge ratios to 46%
US and UK companies reduced their foreign-exchange hedge ratios to 46% in the April-to-June period, a private survey found, suggesting treasurers are becoming less defensive just as markets await clearer policy direction from central banks.
Read moreSwiss arms export vote narrows ahead of Nov. 29
A Swiss referendum to loosen arms-export rules is increasingly looking like a test of neutrality, supply chains and Europe’s rearmament drive, with a new survey showing opponents narrowly ahead and investors weighing whether a defeat could deepen pressure on the country’s defense-industrial base.
Read moreECB Rate Decision Hinges on Lagarde Guidance
The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday, but for investors the bigger issue is whether Christine Lagarde signals this is the last move or leaves the door open to another hike later this year.
Read moreCzech Young Adults Feel Inflation Most
Young Czechs remain the most inflation-sensitive group even as price growth has eased, underscoring how housing and everyday essentials continue to shape household behavior and spending in the Czech economy.
Read moreUkraine central bank warns logistics damage lifts inflation
Ukraine’s central bank is warning that new damage to warehouses, distribution hubs and transport links could lift consumer prices more than it had projected, with most of the impact likely to show up in the autumn.
Read moreJapan Economy Watchers Index Rises to 46.4 in August
Japan’s street-level economy improved for a fourth straight month in August, with the Economy Watchers Survey’s current conditions index rising to 46.4, a 0.7-point gain that suggests domestic demand is stabilizing even as households remain cautious.
Read moreAustralia business conditions hit six-year low
Australia’s business conditions have dropped to their weakest level in six years, a sign the economy is losing momentum just as firms become more cautious about hiring and capital spending.
Read moreRussia Central Bank Faces Sept. 11 Rate Decision
Russia’s central bank is heading into its Sept. 11 policy meeting with investors split between a pause at 14% and another small cut, and the decision will shape borrowing costs, the ruble and the pace of an economy already growing only 0% to 1% this year.
Read moreUkraine NBU cuts dollar and euro official rates
Ukraine’s central bank sharply lowered the official exchange rates for both the dollar and the euro on Sept. 8, a move that points to a calmer currency market even as households and banks remain sensitive to shifts in demand.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the Survey-Based Expectations index?
AI-driven synthesis of survey-based inflation expectations - aggregating consumer, business, and analyst survey commentary to measure how inflation psychology is forming across segments.
How is the Survey-Based Expectations index calculated?
The Survey-Based Expectations index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Deeply Pessimistic) to 100 (Highly Optimistic), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the Survey-Based Expectations index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.