History · 3 years
Overview · Policy Bias index · updated daily
About the Hawkish vs Dovish Fed Policy Sentiment
Machine-learning analysis of Federal Reserve communication tracking whether language and market commentary skews toward tightening or easing, quantifying the policy bias signal embedded in speeches, minutes, and news flow.
Central bank communication cycles — FOMC meetings, minutes releases, and Chair speeches — can shift sentiment readings sharply within minutes. Divergences between the Sentiment and Awareness scores are particularly informative: elevated Awareness with flat Sentiment often signals a policy event is being absorbed, not yet resolved.
Key drivers
- FOMC meeting statements and minutes
- Fed Chair speeches and congressional testimony
- Dot plot rate projections
- CPI and PCE inflation releases
- Non-farm payrolls and unemployment data
Reading the Policy Bias scale
- 0-20Extremely DovishCoverage dominated by risk-aversion signals; narrative heavily skewed toward dovish conditions.
- 21-40DovishBelow-neutral conditions with cautious market positioning; optimism subdued relative to the 30-day baseline.
- 41-60NeutralBalanced coverage with no clear directional bias. Market is in a wait-and-see posture, awaiting a catalyst.
- 61-80HawkishPositive momentum building in the narrative; coverage tilting toward hawkish catalysts and upside scenarios.
- 81-100Now · 100Extremely HawkishElevated risk of mean-reversion. Watch for sentiment exhaustion signals and divergence from the Awareness score.
How to use this index
- Use the Policy Bias score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Hawkish vs Dovish Sentiment at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside hawkish vs dovish, fed policy tone, ai sentiment analysis, internet monetary policy sentiment, alternative data macro - helping traders and analysts track Hawkish vs Dovish Sentiment policy bias shifts in real time.
Latest news
Hawkish vs Dovish Sentiment in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
Gold stays in focus after Fed hike
Gold is still trading like a rate-cut story in a higher-for-longer world, and that is exactly why Goldman Sachs is keeping its bullish target intact even after the Federal Reserve’s latest hike.
Read moreU.S. payrolls lift odds of a Fed rate hike
A surprisingly strong August U.S. payrolls report has moved the Federal Reserve closer to a rate hike this month, but the decision still likely turns on next week’s inflation data.
Read moreU.S. stock futures mixed after strong August jobs report
U.S. stock futures were mixed Sunday night after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report pushed markets to price a higher chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates at its Sept. 15-16 meeting.
Read moreFed Hike Fears Pressure Dividend Stocks
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s warning that another rate hike could be coming is shaking up the income trade, with dividend stocks that borrow heavily and compete with bonds facing the most pressure.
Read moreU.S. 2-Year Yield Tops Fed Funds Rate
The U.S. Treasury market is now pricing policy tighter than the Federal Reserve itself, with the 2-year yield at 4.374% versus the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, a gap that suggests investors expect roughly one to two more rate moves than the central bank has delivered.
Read moreMauritius BoM Faces Less Room to Cut if Fed Stays Hawkish
The Bank of Mauritius may soon have less room to ease policy if the Federal Reserve stays restrictive under Donald Trump’s new appointee, and that matters for the rupee, inflation and local growth. A Fed that refuses to cut as the White House wants would keep U.S. yields elevated, narrowing the BoM’s room to lower its 4.75% key rate without putting fresh pressure on an economy still wrestling with imported price shocks.
Read moreFed rates stay high, bonds weaken, banks gain
A Trump-aligned voice calling on the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged underscores a bigger market truth: investors are no longer counting on quick relief from borrowing costs.
Read moreArgentina bonds and peso under Milei reform pressure
Argentina’s President Javier Milei is running out of time to turn political confrontation into durable economic credibility, and the bond market is already pricing the tension.
Read moreTrump Fed pressure lifts focus on 10-year yield 4.65%
President Donald Trump’s renewed push to force lower interest rates — including an attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook — raises the stakes in a policy battle that now carries clear market consequences for the dollar, Treasury yields and rate-sensitive assets.
Read moreFed rates seen steady at 3.625% in August
The Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady for now, with a still-firm labor market giving policymakers little reason to ease further unless hiring weakens more.
Read moreEmbed
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the Hawkish vs Dovish Sentiment index?
Machine-learning analysis of Federal Reserve communication tracking whether language and market commentary skews toward tightening or easing, quantifying the policy bias signal embedded in speeches, minutes, and news flow.
How is the Hawkish vs Dovish Sentiment index calculated?
The Hawkish vs Dovish Sentiment index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Extremely Dovish) to 100 (Extremely Hawkish), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the Hawkish vs Dovish Sentiment index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.