Vietnam macadamia imports continue as output lags

The reason is simple: macadamia is a perennial crop that takes years to yield meaningful volumes. Industry researchers say grafted trees can bear fruit from the third year, but production only rises later as orchards age and mature. In other words, acreage on paper does not translate immediately into marketable nuts.

That mismatch is visible in the numbers. Vietnam’s more than 46,000 hectares are expected to produce just over 20,000 tons of fresh nuts this year, while the country still imported about 3,500 to 4,000 tons of raw macadamia in 2024 for processing and domestic consumption. Lâm Đồng, one of the biggest growing areas, has about 16,000 hectares planted, but only around 6,600 hectares are in commercial production.

For investors and agribusiness companies, the key issue is supply security. Processors are shifting toward higher-value products, with exports of processed macadamia jumping 346% in the seven-month period to nearly $16 million, while fresh nut exports fell 11.2% to almost $18 million. That pivot supports margins and export growth, but it also increases the need for consistent, standardized raw material that domestic farms are not yet supplying in full.

The import bill is therefore not a sign of weakness so much as a sign of an industry in transition. Vietnam has built enough planting area to matter, but not enough mature, high-yield orchards to satisfy both domestic demand and a rising processing base.

The broader opportunity is bigger still. The Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association says global demand could reach 220,000 tons of macadamia kernels by 2030, equivalent to about 850,000 tons of fresh nuts, creating room for Vietnam to expand if it improves orchard quality, aggregation and processing standards for markets including the U.S., Japan, South Korea and the EU. The industry’s next catalyst will be whether newly planted acreage starts converting into higher domestic output, reducing imports and supporting the government’s target of 130,000 to 150,000 hectares by 2030.