Metlen shares have fresh Wall Street backing after JPMorgan initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a 64-euro target price, implying about 30% upside from the 48.4-euro reference price and reinforcing the case for a rerating as the Greek industrial group expands across metals, power and critical materials.
Metlen Gets JPMorgan 64-Euro Target on Growth Plan
The call matters because JPMorgan is effectively betting that Metlen can roughly double EBITDA over the medium term, from about 1 billion euros now to around 2 billion euros, while still trading at a valuation that the bank says remains below its long-term average. In other words, the stock is being pitched not just as a cyclical metals name, but as a diversified growth story with multiple profit engines.
Sentiment Indicators
JPMorgan’s base case puts fair value at 64.2 euros a share, or about 33% above the reference price, while a more optimistic scenario reaches 76.2 euros, implying as much as 58% upside if projects land on schedule. Even using current commodity prices and exchange rates, the bank sees value at 72.1 euros a share, still about 49% above the reference level.
The investment case rests on a roughly 2.5 billion-euro capital spending plan for 2025-2028, with much of the uplift expected from lower-risk brownfield work and the rest from greenerfield bets such as gallium, circular metals and defense equipment. JPMorgan said about 60% of the EBITDA expansion should come from brownfield projects and 40% from new ventures, underscoring both the scale of the opportunity and the execution risk.
In metals, Metlen aims to lift annual bauxite capacity to 2 million tons, alumina to 1.2 million tons and aluminum to 290,000 tons. JPMorgan estimates the alumina and aluminum expansions alone could add around 160 million euros of EBITDA between 2026 and 2028, with hedging helping shield earnings from a potential aluminum surplus later in the decade.
Gallium is the strategic wildcard. JPMorgan said Metlen could become one of the few gallium producers outside China, a position that lines up with Europe’s push to secure critical raw materials and may carry geopolitical value beyond immediate earnings contributions.
Energy is the other major pillar. The bank expects Metlen’s renewables and storage buildout to contribute materially, including about 2 terawatt hours of renewable output in Greece and a battery storage portfolio of 1.5 gigawatts and 3 gigawatt hours that could add about 130 million euros of EBITDA by 2030. JPMorgan also sees Metlen’s retail power share rising toward 30% by 2028, worth roughly 100 million euros of additional operating profit.
For investors, the key question is whether management can deliver a crowded pipeline on time and on budget. JPMorgan’s downside case still values the stock at 56.6 euros, above the reference price, but the bank said full realization of the upside depends on project execution over the next three years.
The broker forecast EBITDA of 1.16 billion euros in 2026, 1.36 billion euros in 2027 and 1.81 billion euros in 2028. It said that even after the stock’s recent rerating following the main London listing, Metlen still trades at roughly 5 times 2028 EBITDA, around 20% below its long-term average.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Metlen | ▲Higher target price | ▼Execution scrutiny |
| JPMorgan | ▲Fee-generating coverage | ▼Project timing risk |
| Long investors | ▲Potential 30%-58% upside | ▼Short-term volatility |
| Competitors in metals/energy | ▲Benchmark pressure | ▼Share of investor attention |
