Greek Shipowners Warn of Shipping Oversupply Risk

That matters for investors because shipping profits are being driven less by underlying demand growth than by longer voyages, rerouted cargoes and supply-chain inefficiencies. The geopolitical premium has lifted tanker and dry bulk markets, but it is also encouraging owners to order ships at the top of the cycle, exactly when asset prices and financing risk are least forgiving.

Pappas said the dry bulk orderbook is about 16% over the next three years, a level that requires demand to keep growing just to hold the market steady. He warned that if war-related dislocations fade, the industry may discover it has ordered too much tonnage, especially with scrapping still low and Chinese shipyard capacity expanding.

Vafias was more blunt, saying debt is “the great killer” in bad markets and warning that tanker rates could fall as much as 80% if conflicts that are currently distorting trade flows end. He argued that some owners are now buying ships near the top of the cycle, leaving them vulnerable if freight normalizes faster than expected.

Pittas pushed back, saying Greek owners have built up cash after several strong years and in many cases are using little debt, which reduces balance-sheet risk even as they place new orders. He also argued that the world fleet is aging after years of underinvestment, creating room for newer ships to replace older tonnage over time.

Kanellakis focused on the short term, saying safety risks in conflict zones are now part of every commercial decision, alongside the chance of vessel damage, towing costs and reputational harm. He said the current strength in some segments, especially tankers, has given owners enough cash to pursue long-term charters and new investments, even though he expects pressure to build from 2028 as the current orderbook delivers.

The debate underscores the split facing shipping investors: near-term earnings remain supported by geopolitics and tight effective capacity, but the combination of high newbuild prices, low scrapping and rising orders could sharply change the supply picture later. The next catalysts are whether war-related trade disruptions persist into 2027 and whether the latest wave of ship orders keeps accelerating.