Goldman raises Brent forecast to $105 a barrel

The timing matters. Brent had already risen 14% in October to a six-month high even as physical crude supply from the Middle East had largely recovered toward pre-conflict levels. That rally suggests the market is pricing not just current barrels lost, but the probability of further attacks on shipping lanes and energy infrastructure after the U.S. election cycle. Goldman’s analysts said the difficulty of pinpointing when and where supply interruptions might hit justified baking in a 1 million barrel-a-day global disruption assumption in their base case for 2027.

For investors, the forecast is another signal that oil producers and related equities may continue to outperform while refiners, airlines and other fuel-intensive users face margin pressure. Brent futures were trading around $110 a barrel in the latest session after a pullback, while U.S. crude and energy-sector proxies have remained firm. BP’s latest filings showed realized liquids prices well above a year earlier, and the broader sector has benefited from the same price move that is squeezing consumers and downstream buyers.

Goldman is not alone in becoming more constructive. Morgan Stanley and ANZ have also raised their Brent outlooks to $105, reinforcing the idea that this is a broad re-pricing rather than a single bank’s outlier call. The near-term question is whether diplomacy or deterrence can reduce the risk premium faster than new disruptions can restore it. If not, oil’s next leg may be driven less by inventories than by headlines.