The European Investment Bank and International Finance Corporation have expanded the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database’s credit-risk statistics through 2026, giving lenders and investors a broader benchmark for pricing sovereign and private-sector risk in developing economies.
EIB, IFC Expand GEMs Credit Risk Data Through 2026
That matters because emerging-market credit costs are being shaped by a tougher global funding backdrop, still-elevated policy rates in major economies and uneven growth across the developing world. Better historical data on default, recovery and spread behavior can help banks, development lenders and portfolio investors calibrate lending terms, capital needs and loss expectations more accurately.
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The GEMs Consortium now covers private and public lending from 1994 through 2025, sovereign lending from 1984 through 2025 and includes a pilot study of credit spreads from 2006 through 2025. The new release extends one of the most widely used datasets for assessing risk in lower-income and emerging economies, where loan pricing often depends on incomplete market information.
For investors, the update is relevant to everything from cross-border bank lending to bond underwriting and infrastructure finance. The data can influence how institutions compare country risk, estimate expected losses and decide where to deploy capital as governments in developing markets lean on external financing to support growth, infrastructure and social spending.
The timing also comes as markets remain sensitive to higher-for-longer rates and a stronger dollar, which tend to tighten financial conditions for borrowers outside the U.S. and Europe. In that environment, more granular risk statistics can support more selective lending — benefiting institutions that can price risk well while pressuring weaker credits and borrowers facing refinancing needs.
The release suggests the narrative for 2026 is not just about more capital flowing to emerging markets, but about capital becoming more discriminating. That should keep GEMs-style data central to how multilateral lenders, commercial banks and investors assess where risk premiums are justified and where they are too thin.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| EIB and IFC | ▲Stronger risk benchmark | ▼Less reliance on outdated data |
| Commercial lenders | ▲Better pricing tools | ▼Easier lending margins |
| Emerging-market borrowers | ▲Potentially fairer pricing | ▼Higher scrutiny on weaker credits |
| Investors in EM debt | ▲Better loss estimates | ▼Low-quality credits |
