Africa growth forecast tops China next year

The gap is narrow, but the implications are broad. China’s growth remains constrained by an aging population, weak domestic demand and export headwinds as the US and Europe push back against its surging shipments. Africa, by contrast, is being supported by rising internal demand, a young and expanding population and a wave of commodity and infrastructure investment.

The IMF outlook is drawing attention because it comes after several African economies proved more resilient than expected to energy and supply shocks tied to the Middle East conflict. Uganda started crude output from the Pearl project in September, Mozambique is advancing a major liquefied natural gas development and Guinea’s $23 billion Simandou iron ore project is moving forward. In Nigeria, Aliko Dangote’s 700,000-barrel-a-day refinery has reached full operating capacity and is already supplying domestic fuel needs while exporting to Europe.

Those projects matter for investors because they point to a deeper shift from consumption-led recovery to a more durable growth model built on energy, mining, refining and light manufacturing. Economists cited by the Financial Times say 10 African economies could grow 6% or more next year, including Guinea, Rwanda, Uganda, Ivory Coast and Tanzania.

Capital is following the growth story. Standard Chartered says net new inflows into sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa have reached $14 billion year to date. Dangote also plans to double refinery capacity in Lagos and build a second 700,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Kenya, moves that would tighten regional energy integration and reduce import dependence.

China still looms large in the story. Beijing began a zero-tariff regime on imports from 53 African countries in May and has pledged more than 360 billion yuan in financing over three years, including credit lines, aid and investment commitments. Cheaper Chinese solar equipment is also accelerating the spread of distributed power across rural Africa, feeding demand and productivity.

Even so, the growth race should not be overstated. Africa’s expansion remains uneven and, on a per-capita basis, still too weak to materially close the continent’s poverty gap. For investors, the near-term takeaway is that Africa is increasingly becoming an investable growth market in its own right, even as China’s slower trajectory reinforces the search for alternative emerging-market engines. The next test will be whether commodity projects, manufacturing gains and foreign inflows can sustain the momentum into 2027.